Q3 2018 Air Trade Leading Index from DHL Hong Kong

In a nutshell, the overall trade outlook for the third quarter of 2018 dropped. In comparison to the previous quarter of 2018, it dropped slightly, as a result of the constant change in the global dynamics. Fortunately, the Q3 2018 still beats the last year’s results.


 

In a nutshell, the overall trade outlook for the third quarter of 2018 dropped. In comparison to the previous quarter of 2018, it dropped slightly, as a result of the constant change in the global dynamics. Fortunately, the Q3 2018 still beats the last year’s results.

 

Concerns over trade tariffs have intensified, with escalated trade tensions making air traders more cautious about demand from China, though imports appear to be more neutral. In a survey conducted before the China-US additional tariffs took effect, importers voted in favor of positive electronic goods imports from the Americas among other subdued trades. Air imports sentiments were less positive, as compared to the previous quarter. Imports from the Americas in particular remain optimistic due to the demand for electronic goods.

The outlook for Air (Re-) Exports also dropped from the last quarter, with the sentiment being shared across major destinations in the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific. All key attributes remain steadily higher than in the previous year amid rising geopolitical tensions, which caused downturns in product variety and sales volume, and no drastic changes in shipment urgency.

 

The first indicator of its kind in Hong Kong, commissioned by DHL Express Hong Kong and compiled by the Hong Kong Productivity Council, the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index aims to provide a forward looking perspective on overall air export and import trade volumes by analyzing key attributes of business demand. The quarterly DTI, compiled based on a survey of more than 600 Hong Kong companies focusing on in- or out-bound air trading, was first conducted for Q2 2014. An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.