31,000+ aircraft over next 20 years: Airbus
In the next 20 years (2014-2033), according to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7 per cent driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger (100 seats and above) and freighter aircraft worth US$4.6 trillion.
November 10, 2014
In the next 20 years (2014-2033), according to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7 per cent driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger (100 seats and above) and freighter aircraft worth US$4.6 trillion. Th e passenger and freighter fleet will increase from today’s 18,500 aircraft to 37,500 by 2033, an increase of nearly 19,000 aircraft.
Some 12,400 older less fuel efficient passenger and freighter aircraft will be retired over that period.
The economic growth rates in emerging markets such as Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, are outstripping more economically developed regions. One significant effect is that the middle classes in Asia are expected to quadruple in size by 2033 whereas globally they will double from 33 per cent to 63 per cent of world population. As a result of increased urbanisation and concentration of wealth, the number of aviation megacities worldwide will double to 91. These cities will be centres of world wealth creation with 35 per cent of world GDP centred there, with more than 95 per cent of all long haul traffic going to from or through them.
In advanced economies, international traffic flows will be the fastest growing while in the emerging economies of Latin America, Africa and Asia Pacific, intra-regional and domestic flows will grow faster, Airbus said. For example, stimulation of new traffic coupled with increased accessibility of air travel will see India record the fastest growing domestic flows, becoming one of the 10 largest markets by 2033.