China engine ‘sputtering’ – additional product data soon: July 2017

Overall YoY volume growth was 11.8% worldwide, caused by above average growth from the origins Europe, MESA and Asia Pacific.


 

The surprising July-developments were related to China. For the first time this year, the world’s air cargo engine sputtered a bit (relatively speaking, that is). The origin China saw double-digit growth for every month (averaging 19%), but not for July (8%). It grew faster than the world market every month, but not in July. Air cargo needed the compensation of high growth from places like Hong Kong, Germany, India, the United Kingdom, Singapore and the Netherlands, to achieve its July-growth of 11.8% YoY. By the way, incoming traffic in China continues to boom (+21% YoY).

 

The China situation is also reflected in our DTK measure for July. When the %-growth in DTK’s (Direct Ton Kilometers) surpasses the %-growth in volume, this means an increase in the average distance between origin and destination of shipments. In the first half of the year, DTK-growth indeed easily outpaced volume growth, but hardly so in July (DTK +11.9% vs. volume +11.8%). Given the mostly long-distance character of air cargo ex-China, the country’s relative weakness contributed to this deviation from the trend.

 

Expansion of available product information

With the worldwide inputs of well over 70 airlines in its database, WorldACD is now in a position to launch a more detailed version of its product data service in September. This will be reflected in our future reporting on specific air cargo product categories. Let us have a preliminary look at some insights on carrier groups & their shares in specific air cargo products (such as perishables, pharmaceuticals, electronics, dangerous goods, etc.). We compared the year-to-date with the same period in 2016.