Sept best month this quarter: WorldACD
"Judging by the first three quarters of the year, 2015 will be known as a year of modest volume growth, coupled with the largest USD-yield decrease in many years."
February 6, 2015
By Donald Urquhart
YtD revenues are an altogether different story, WorldACD noted, adding that when expressing worldwide revenues in USD or CNY, there is a considerable YoY decrease of 12 and 10 per cent respectively. In sharp contrast, the same revenues expressed in JPY or EUR show an increase of 4.0 and 8.0 per cent, respectively. “If nothing else, this difference reveals that it will not be easy to qualify the year 2015 as uniformly bad for air cargo. When it comes to individual companies’ results, factors other than worldwide averages come into play,” the research group said.
According to the so-called broad index of the US Fed, over the past 12 months the USD appreciated by about 15 per cent against a basket of currencies from countries with which the US trades and ths will have different effects on different players. Companies with a good balance between revenues and cost in specific currencies, will see their results influenced less by rates of exchange than companies not having such a fit. Thus, the 14 per cent decrease in USD-yields (YtD) will not necessarily mean (the same level of) bad news for all airlines, it said.
“The full dynamics of the worldwide air cargo business make it quite difficult to establish the market impact of individual trends, be they varying exchange rates, capacity changes, lower fuel prices, shifts to all-in pricing, matching and hedging, modal shifts, changes in demand or cost reductions.