Freighter demand on upswing: ACMG

Although seemingly hard to comprehend in this current market environment, a new report by Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG) says the air freight market will need about 100 new freighters per year over the next twenty years in a “low-growth” scenario, which is based on three per cent annual growth in demand. This translates into a 50 per cent increase in the number of freighters by 2033.


Freighter demand on upswing: ACMG


Although seemingly hard to comprehend in this current market environment, a new report by Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG) says the air freight market will need about 100 new freighters per year over the next twenty years in a “low-growth” scenario, which is based on three per cent annual growth in demand. This translates into a 50 per cent increase in the number of freighters by 2033.

A “high growth” scenario, which assumes five per cent annual growth in demand for air freight services, would result in more than a doubling of the quantity of freighters in the global fleet by 2033. This produces the need for an average of 150 added freighters per year for the next twenty years. This compares to the historic trend in which approximately 80 freighters (production units and P-to-F conversions) were added per year from 1990-2013.

Even under the extreme case where there was no growth in air cargo demand over the next twenty years, there would be a need for about 60 added freighters per year to offset freighters that would be retired from the existing fleet. “Some vigour is returning to the air freight market, and when looking over the long term, the outlook for freighters is healthy,” said Robert Dahl, managing director of ACMG and one of the forecast’s authors.