China revises cargo forecast downwards

The General Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC) has cut its official air traffic forecast for 2011 as international passenger and cargo volumes weaken along side the deteriorating global economic conditions.


CAAC deteriorating global economic conditions General Administration of Civil Aviation of China


The General Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC) has cut its official air traffic forecast for 2011 as international passenger and cargo volumes weaken along side the deteriorating global economic conditions.

China’s air cargo growth forecast has been dramatically slashed from a growth of 11.5 per cent to flat in 2011, a repeat of 2008 when world economics hit bottom. China’s carriers are now expected to handle 5.6 million tonnes of air freight, compared with 6.4 million tonnes forecast previously.

Passenger growth forecasts have been cut from 13 to 8 per cent this year to 288 million passengers – nearly 13.4 million fewer passenger than previously estimated – but up none-the-less from 267 million last year.

The China Statistics Bureau data for 3Q2011, released in mid-October, revealed that China’s GDP increased by 9.1 per cent in the quarter, marking the slowest pace of growth since 2009, adding to concerns of the worsening global economic conditions as Europe’s debt crisis deepens.

In the first nine months of 2011, China’s total air cargo declined one per cent to 4.1 million tonnes while the third quarter saw cargo volumes fall 0.7 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes, led by a 5.8 per cent drop in international cargo volumes which surpassed domestic growth of two per cent.