AMERICAS: Boeing projects 20-year US$4 trillion market

Boeing forecasts a US$4 trillion market for new aircraft over the next 20 years with a significant increase in forecasted deliveries, according to the Boeing 2011 Current Market Outlook (CMO) released at the Paris airshow last month. The company’s annual commercial aviation market analysis foresees a market for 33,500 new passenger airplanes and freighters between […]


Boeing forecasts a US$4 trillion market for new aircraft over the next 20 years with a significant increase in forecasted deliveries, according to the Boeing 2011 Current Market Outlook (CMO) released at the Paris airshow last month. The company’s annual commercial aviation market analysis foresees a market for 33,500 new passenger airplanes and freighters between 2011 and 2030. “The world market has recovered and is now expanding at a significant rate,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Not only is there a strong demand for air travel and new airplanes today, but the fundamental drivers of air travel – including economic growth, world trade and liberalisation – all point to a healthy long-term demand.” Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 5.1 percent annual rate over the longterm and the world fleet is expected to double by 2030. The single-aisle market will continue to see strong demand around the world and is expected to increase its share of the market. Fleet composition will change significantly by 2030 with single-aisle jets making up 70 percent of the total. Boeing projects the world freighter fleet to increase from 1,760 to 3,500 aircraft. Additions to the fleet will include 970 new-production freighters (market value of US$250 billion) and 1,990 airplanes converted from passenger models. Large (more than 88.2 tonnes capacity / 80 tonnes) freighters will account for 690 new-build airplanes. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tonnes / 40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 280 airplanes. No new standardbody freighters (49.6 tonnes / less than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,240 standard-body conversions. On average over the next 20 years, air cargo traffic will grow at a rate of 5.6 per cent.