These year-on-year comparisons for July were less than the June growth data of 26.6 and 11.6 per cent respectively. IATA said the apparent slowdown was entirely due to the fact that by July 2009 traffic was already starting to recover. After adjusting for seasonality, the improvement in demand was faster month-to-month in July than it was in June. The July global cargo demand was also 4 per cent higher than pre-crisis levels in early 2008.
“It is clear that the recovery has entered a slower phase,†IATA said. During the second half of 2009, demand was rebounding at an annualised rate of 28 per cent for cargo and 12 per cent for passenger traffic. In the year to July, the annualised growth rates had dropped to 17 per cent for air freight and 8 per cent for passenger. “However, this is still considerably above the industry’s traditional 6 per cent growth trend,†IATA added. The recovery is also a “two-speed recovery†with continuing weak growth by European carriers of 12.1 per cent in July, less than half the 25.3 per cent increase by Asia-Pacific carriers or the 27.1 per cent growth recorded by North American carriers.
“The recovery in demand has been faster than anticipated. But, as we look towards the end of the year, the pace of the recovery will likely slow,†cautioned Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s director general and CEO. “The jobless economic recovery is keeping consumer confidence fragile, particularly in North America and Europe. This is affecting leisure markets and cargo traffic. Following the boost of cargo demand from inventory re-stocking, further growth will be largely determined by consumer spending which remains weak. But strengthening corporate profits are supporting an increase in capital expenditure that could continue to drive robust freight growth,†he added.