Asia will contribute 40% of global trade by 2028

Despite the temporary set-back from the global economic recession last year, three trade triangles centered on Asia are expected to contribute almost 40 per cent of global trade by 2028, according to DHL Global Forwarding. Donald Urquhart reports.

“Asia’s economies, particularly China and to a lesser extent India will remain the centre of gravity for trade,” said Hermann Ude, CEO for DHL Global Forwarding, Freightduring the APEC CEO Summit 2009.

“The search for resources and export markets is a key driver of Asia’s economic growth and expansion. Rich in natural resources, with a large population of youthful, increasingly well-educated workforce and a growing middle class – this is the era of Asia and the emerging markets of Latin America and the MiddleEast,” he added.

Three trade triangles
The hypothesis of DHL’s research is that trade within three distinct, highgrowth trade triangles are expected to shape the global economy.

These triangles include: Intra-Asia, Middle East-Africa-Asia and Latin America-Asia. Within these three triangles, China’s imports of raw materials and exports of various manufactured goods such as industrial machinery, textiles and telecommunications and office equipment will increasingly dominate trade volumes, according to Ude.

“There’s no doubt Asia and the emerging markets will shape the direction and future for economic and commercial expansion,” he said. “If we look at the global logistics market in 1999, Asia’s share of it stood at 34 per cent, or US$15.57 billion. By 2008 this figure had grown to $339 billion, making up 46 per cent – or nearly half of the worldwide market,” he added. DHL identified core trade lanes driving growth in each of the three high growth triangles of trade.