Pessimism: The feeling that things will turn out badly. A general disposition to look on the dark side and to expect the worst in all things.
Definitions vary in degrees but in essence this is it – pessimism is all about seeing the glass half empty. Optimism, on the other hand sees the glass half full.
Today, as this magazine is about to go to print I think the air cargo world – and by extension the rest of the global economic system by virtue of air cargo’s leading position as an indicator of the world’s economic health – heard for the first time in at least a handful of months, that the glass is, perhaps only in the tiniest fraction fuller than emptier.
One of the world’s foremost authorities in terms of analysing and understanding the trends impacting the world’s airlines – the International Air Transport Association (IATA) – has stepped up and said: “There may be some light at the end of the tunnel with air freightâ€Â.
It may not seem like much, but in reality it’s a weighty statement, intoxicating with the faintest visceral aroma of optimism. My hat goes off to IATA’s chief economist, Brian Pierce – who undoubtably has poured over his numbers – for having the courage to step up and be essentially, contrarian.
And why do I say that? Because good news is bad news. Surely, one day soon, when all is said and done with the recession, the mass media – along with other assorted nay-sayers, should be fingered as prime culprits in driving the global economy – well at least consumer sentiment – into the ground by creating an environment of fear.
Pronouncements of doom make much better copy than the brave soul who sticks his neck out to say things aren’t really as bad as everyone is making them out to be. For sure the British politician who said the recession would last something like 15 years will get far more mileage in the press than Mr Pierce, who clearly has his finger more accurately on pulse of the global economy in pointing to the first small, but positive sign that the sky has stopped falling.
He may be wrong, and he’s acknowledged that, but what IATA’s numbers guru said was that while the cargo market is no where near a full recovery, the 20 per cent drops in monthly freight volumes have flattened out and may moderate over the next months to only 10 per cent declines.
He described it as a “sideways†movement in cargo volumes, rather than a downwards shift. This is surely a glass half full. It means FTKs will still be about 10 per cent below last year’s levels, but none-the-less this should be viewed positively, at least for the change in momentum it represents.
Part of the data leading to this conclusion came from surveys of shippers who similarly expressed a changing attitude as to how full the proverbial glass was. And Mr Pierce is not alone – he has global air express heavyweight Fred Smith in his corner. The FedEx founder recently commented, that in his view, the cargo free-fall had hit bottom with the express giant seeing some degree of stabilisation in the market.
All I can say is, cross our fingers and raise our half full glass to the start of a brighter day tomorrow…for the global economy, the air freight market, and all of our livelihoods. Cheers.