AMERICA: Fuel-efficiency driving US$3.2 trillion plane market: Boeing

The steep rise in fuel prices confronting the commercial aviation industry will drive demand for new aircraft, according to Boeing’s recent market forecast. Boeing said it foresees a US$3.2 trillion market over the next two decades “driven by an increasing demand for airplanes to replace older, less efficient aircraft.” “We’re facing a very dynamic situation […]


The steep rise in fuel prices confronting the commercial aviation industry will drive demand for new aircraft, according to Boeing’s recent market forecast.

Boeing said it foresees a US$3.2 trillion market over the next two decades “driven by an increasing demand for airplanes to replace older, less efficient aircraft.”

“We’re facing a very dynamic situation today in the commercial aviation industry,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth said. “This year’s forecast is rooted in today’s realities, but also recognises the nature of a long-term outlook.” That outlook includes a projected 5 per cent annual increase in global passenger traffic and a 5.8 per cent annual rise in freight.

“We’re seeing an increasing share of airplane deliveries to the Asia/ Pacific region, as well as the Middle East, Latin America, and the Commonwealth of Independent States,” Tinseth said. “The result is a much more geographically balanced and more stable long-term market, which is less vulnerable to swings in regional economies or other variations in demand.”

Overall, Boeing predicted a need for 29,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2027, up 2.8 per cent from the 28,600 two-decade forecast released last year. The global fleet will decrease,however, as more aircraft are used as replacements. It forecast that 43 per cent of new planes will replace older aircraft, up from the 36 per cent predicted last year.

The fleet in 2027 will number approximately 35,800 units, down from the 36,400 foreseen in 2007. The 3.2per cent annual increase is identical to the estimated economic growth rate,Boeing said, adding that more than 30 per cent of the forecast market demand already is in backlog.

Over the next 20 years, airlines will take delivery of 970 B747/ A380/ jumbo aircraft worth US$290 billion, 6,750 twin-aisle aircraft worth US$1.47 trillion, 19,160 single-aisle aircraft worth US$1.36 trillion and 2,510regional jets worth US$80 billion.