Boeing revises cargo forecast on fuel, recession and maritime pressures

Although Boeing will likely make slight downward revision of world air cargo demand when it releases its next World Air Cargo Forecast in November, the airframe manufacturer remains upbeat about long term growth prospects of the air cargo business. Boeing is projecting 5 per cent growth in worldwide air cargo traffic for 2008, slightly up […]


Although Boeing will likely make slight downward revision of world air cargo demand when it releases its next World Air Cargo Forecast in November, the airframe manufacturer remains upbeat about long term growth prospects of the air cargo business.

Boeing is projecting 5 per cent growth in worldwide air cargo traffic for 2008, slightly up from last year’s cargo traffic growth of 4.3 per cent but still the fourth straight year that growth fell short of the manufacturer’s long-term forecast of 6.1 per cent annual cargo traffic growth. In a media briefing at the Singapore Airshow, Boeing regional director for cargo marketing, Jim Edgar, said the revised annual cargo growth rate would likely be in the 5-6 per cent range.

A number of key factors are behind this he said, including the ongoing record high oil price, the steady slide of the US economy into recession and the resultant global ripple effects, as well as the potential impact of air cargo being diverted to the maritime trade.

“World maritime dry cargo traffic has grown as fast as air cargo traffic,” Edgar said. But long term he said Boeing forecasts point to a maritime growth rate 1-2 per cent lower than air cargo growth.