It seems that India is very much on everyone’s minds these days while China has lost some of its lustre. Sure the solid growth is and will be for quite some time, a feature of China, but now India has taken over popular consciousness. It’s the next big thing, the nextChina people exclaim with a glint in their eye.
But is it? Although delegates at the Air Cargo India event in Mumbai last month were far more restrained in their criticism of the hurdles facing the development of the air cargo industry in India than they were at the same event two years ago, it was clear the issues were still very much on everyone’s minds.
Virtually all delegates agreed the will to get things on track is certainly there and concrete steps have been made in numerous areas. This includes pumping money in for infrastructure development and some steps towards removing some of the bureaucratic shackles.
But one particularly persistent and highly pertinent criticism that government planners would do well to heed, is that infrastructure planning has nearly always underestimated the actual growth going forward. New facilities get built based on current levels of growth, or at most short-term growth forecasts, instead of ensuring long-term growth will be met.
This results in nothing more than a stop-gap solution, and one that will fester and create a another crisis down the line. The other aspect that is worrying is the seemingly disjointed nature of the infrastructure development. It’s fine to build the latest and greatest airport or cargo terminal, but if the roads outside the airport are congested, for instance, the effectiveness of the new facilities is severely curbed.
Take Mumbai as an example. As an airline passenger you can move from the plane, through immigration, pick up your baggage and emerge from the airport in a very respectable time. But then your problems begin. A journey on Mumbai’s roads from international airport to the southern business district of Colabo, can take up to two hours. Moving cargo in this environment means lost efficiencies and substantially added costs. But yet, precious little appears to be planned for this area.
The harsh fact is much of India’s infrastructure is in shambles. While India may well be the next China, it’s still lagging far, far behind its Asian cousin. Certainly differences in historical development, political systems and cultures are key factors.
One bit of serious, but ever-so-slightly amusing irony came from the recent AIC event. A mainland-Chinese trade delegate with whom I was speaking was aghast at what he saw in India. “It’s much worse than China,” he exclaimed with unfettered shock.
“It’s so run down and there are so many people sleeping on the street,” he added. Indeed, the chasm between rich and poor is massive. Poverty gnaws at the edges of society like the king-sized rats that chew on scraps at Mumbai’s rail stations. The various levels of government are faced with such a massive array of socio-economic problems on top of basic infrastructure issues it’s a wonder any progress is made at all. Add to that a highly fractured political environment and a lethargic bureaucracy and one wonders how anything gets done. But, seemingly against all odds, things are getting done, albeit it piecemeal and perhaps not as fast as they could be.
While I don’t share the optimism of some, that within the next three or four years India will have a handle on its infrastructure woes, I do believe given time it will deservedly overcome enough of its problems to grow and prosper and certainly the sooner the better. – Donald Urquhart