The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released freight and passenger traffic forecasts projecting that by 2011 the air transport industry will handle 2.75 billion passengers (620 million more passengers than in 2006) and 36 million tonnes of international freight (7.5 million tonnes more than in 2006).
International freight volumes are expected to grow at an annual average growth rate (AAGR) of 4.8 per cent over the forecast period, supported by economic growth, globalisation and trade. Strong price competition from other modes of transport is expected to keep freight demand growth below the 6.2 per cent AAGR recorded for 2002-2006.
Asia Pacific is expected to lead freight growth with an AAGR of 5.4 per cent over the period. Seven of the top ten freight markets fall within the region: China (10.8 per cent), India (8.3 per cent), Republic of Korea (8.2 per cent), Vietnam (7.5 per cent), Sri Lanka (6.8 per cent), Pakistan (6.7 per cent) and Malaysia (6.2 per cent). The Middle East will see the second highest growth at 5 per cent. The fastest growing Middle Eastern markets are expected to be Qatar (6.9 per cent) and Saudi Arabia(6.2 per cent).
Freight to/from and within Asia Pacific will account for 57 per cent of the 36 million tonnes of international air freight volume in 2011, up from 55 per cent in 2006. As most volume will be outbound from Asia, there are concerns about the impact of imbalances in global trade patterns on the industry.
International passenger demand is expected to rise from 760 million passengers in 2006 to 980 million in 2011 at an AAGR of 5.1 per cent. Th is will be lower than the 7.4 per cent AAGR recorded during 2002- 2006, largely due to slightly slower global economic growth, IATA said.
“The numbers clearly show that the world wants to fl y. And it also needs to fl y. Air transport is critical to the fabric of the global economy, playing a critical role in wealth generation and poverty reduction. The livelihoods of 32 million people are tied to aviation, accounting for US$3.5 trillion in economic activity,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
But he warned that a looming infrastructure crisis could put these benefits at risk. “Failure to prepare adequately to meet demand will have an environmental cost with inefficient use of airspace and delay,” said Bisignani.
“There is no panacea, but the starting point for a sustainable solution is a common vision for efficiency that is acted on by governments and industry. With infrastructure planning timelines measured in decades, there is no time to lose.”
“Parts of the world are effectively managing infrastructure development to anticipate and meet demand—particularly the Middle East and China,” he added. Bisignani warned however, that the total impact from infrastructure inefficiency—from bottlenecks to inefficient processes—adds 12 per cent in fuel costs and environment costs of 73 million tonnes of unnecessary CO₂ emissions each year.