EUROPE: Economist paints rosy cargo picture

Air cargo was right to have strong expectations of future growth, according to Dr Gene Huang, chief economist of FedEx, who predicted it would continue to grow in line with trade growth, that is two to three times as fast as worldGDP growth. The economist, who was ranked the second most accurate forecaster by the […]


Air cargo was right to have strong expectations of future growth, according to Dr Gene Huang, chief economist of FedEx, who predicted it would continue to grow in line with trade growth, that is two to three times as fast as worldGDP growth.

The economist, who was ranked the second most accurate forecaster by the Wall Street Journal last year, said a combination of increased access to goods and also information was producing“explosive” growth in economic activities.“Transportation is the pulse of thatactivity, the way that the realisation ofvalue is facilitated,” he told delegates atthe TICA conference in Cologne.

“Trade deepening and global sourcing will continue, and as manufacturing processes become more and more fragmented, global sourcing will grow,” he said. Open skies, free trade and other liberalisation would also drive air cargo growth, along with the evolution towards lighter goods with more technology in them, which was a major economic trend.

On the immediate outlook for the global economy, Huang had a rosy perspective, despite signs of an adjustment in the US economy as its housing market slowed. He noted that each country in the JP Morgan purchasing managing index (PMI) was showinggrowth.

“The growth rate is slowing towards more sustainability, but that is a pretty healthy situation,” he said. “New orders are still growing, employment is growing, and prices are moving higher.